DISCUSSION: Statistical models, combined with extending long term climatic trends, strongly suggest that temperatures across California will average above normal not only in November but through the winter months into the spring. While more observational models are more mixed in the how temperatures will trend, none suggest the winter will be cooler than normal, mostly disagree on how warm it will be. Precipitation is another story with only a weak El Nino expected to develop by the winter solstice and then remain in place at least through the first half of next year. Unfortunately the correlation poor between an weak El Nino event and what kind of a rainy season this will produce across Northern and/or Central California, hence the "equal chances" tag for precipitation for the entire outlook period. A weak El Nino event does give a slight lean toward above normal precipitation across SoCal. Cushman